Avoiding the political aspects of the situation, I think that it will be more area/location based problems than ‘states’.
What I mean is, if Salt Lake burns, it doesn’t matter who in all reality caused it. but the potential influx of travelers, hostile or not.
Now the agitators preceding the masses, ginning up support and firing up the ignorant with rhetoric and actions, inciting problems as they go.
LA burns, I’d be more concerned about Miami, Atlanta and the like. Already hotbeds of problems rather than neighboring states.
Antifa and groups that are similar tend to grow and gain support until the smackdown happens, then the pawns lose interest in the face of real risk and the agitators find another cause.
Looking at the communist revolutionary types from a hundred years ago gives a good reference for their actions. While the technology has changed, people haven’t.