Damn Mouse… – you’re basically describing the worst case scenario as far as I see it. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head in a number of things. That pretty much describes what I would do if I were on the other side and yah…one doesn’t have to look too long at history to find precedence.
I’ve tossed around the notion of what would the military, as a whole, do and I think the absolute best case scenario is a divided military. Worst case is they do as they’re told.
In my opinion based on my experience, the military is no longer what is portrayed to the public. The true tip of the spear is now made up of contractors, operators, corporations and lackey bean counters. All are very well compensated by the way and not just with big paychecks but generous benefits by any modern measure. Mercenaries by any other name. The actual military acts as the rest of the spear, guided by that tip.
Generalized corruption is rampant and pervasive at all levels the only exception being possibly the scattered lower levels. The line between organic military operations is heavily influenced or, in too many cases, outright decided by “other than military” entities and is now common place. Yes, maybe the CO or equivalent gives the final word, but it didn’t come from them, they got their orders from with out.
Ever been to some secret squirrel get together, space command, listening posts, forward ops, sand box, major command ops, C and C….I rest my case.
I’m not saying everyone in the military or associated is evil, some of my dearest life long friends are folks I met while serving. There are many good natured, good hearted, well meaning folks with good morals and integrity that won’t waffle when/if the time comes. I am saying the cancerous corruption inside the MIC leaves the military far from dependable on the home front should it come to that.
But…there is also the whole dependency on technology and JIT logistics factor. That is by far the weakest link in my opinion. The 24/7/365 resources required for the maintenance of the situation as I’ve described above is a gargantuan monstrosity. On it’s best days it does well to keep up, requiring enormous effort and cost. Without the modern infrastructure in place as it is today, that beast as a whole will come to a grinding halt in very short order. Now then you’ll have your die hards and hold outs that will make the best of the situation as they see it for sure. I’ll paraphrase Sun Tzu for good measure, you got no military without an adequate supply line.
Then what happens next? Well let’s look at historical precedence in places like…Colombia, Panama, Venezuela, Cambodia, Balkans, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Poland, Hungary, Germany, France, China, Russia, Turkey and Rome. Some of these places are still in play. Even if the military as a whole does choose to support .gov it won’t be able to do so with the capacity it has now, at least not for long, if they decide to appreciably degrade infrastructure on a broad scale. A plan for power down/black outs would be much too hard to control and way too risky.
And then there’s the armed populace thing that NONE of the above mentioned countries had to contend with, at least on the scale it is here presently. This is a big country with a written constitution/2A. Not that one couldn’t try to starve the guns out some how, time would not be on your side though. Anyone with grand nefarious designs would be foolish not to take that outlier into account.
I’m afraid all this doesn’t give us a good clear picture other than the prospect of it being pretty rough going for all concerned. That’s why I like to read Selco. I think he’s laid it out all pretty well. You have to try to be ready for anything. We don’t know and Murphys’ law applies to all sides. Selcos’ take most closely describes what I’ve seen/experienced from a macro view.
I’m with you though. I’m thinking some kind of slow motion train wreck is an apt description of how it all goes down and the economy will be a part of it. By design at worst or through political ignorance at best. If SHTF is gonna happen, it seems it almost be easier for us preppers if it’d happen overnight like. Conundrums.