I’m going to take the long way around, but bear with me. I’ll get to the point eventually.
Back in the Y2K days (yes, it was real, but that’s another story) there was a common denial response that “we’ll just go back to paper” if the computers go tits up. In fact, one of our managers said that very thing. So we sat down and did the math for him. To revert the 5 current business processes he was responsible for (managed efficiently by ten people and a minicomputer) would require what turned out to be the equivalent of 50,000 square feet of office space to handle the 1,200 people and their typewriters, calculators, and filing cabinets he would need to process the 5 streams of paperwork with enough efforts in parallel that the paperwork could be managed in only twice the time it took his unit to do the same thing each day.
The thing with computers is that they compress time. Things happen faster, therefore those things can be more complex, or more flexible, or more adaptive than the original processes. We’re doing more with less, substantially less. How much energy would it take to handle the expanded office space described above? Compare that with 10 people and a minicomputer. Now multiply that out across banking, stock and commodities trading, the loss of JIT supply chains and the subsequent need to hold inventory on site instead of in transit, automated manufacturing, power plants and power distribution, airline reservations, air traffic routing, loss of coordinated street signals, back to snail mail, back to Plain Old Telephones, back to printed news, and on and on.
Whatever level of energy we are consuming now is a small fraction of what would be needed to “do things by hand” and have this lifestyle, and IT is a key enabler.
Our real problem is population density, and consumption of energy. Our carbon foot print is obscene.
Population density, in combination with lifestyle, defines what level of energy is consumed. Damn near no one is giving up on even a little bit of that lifestyle, and the few who are don’t matter because their impact is down in the noise. Precious few leftists have given up their cars for bicycles, or airline travel for video conferencing, even though both are eminently doable. And for those on the right? “The American way of life is not negotiable.” Nuff said.
So we will continue going the way of Rome in Caesar’s time and everyone will continue to pretend that money has value, that laws are fairly enforced, and that infinite growth on a finite planet is a viable concept. Because pretending has been working since before the turn of the century. If it’s worked so far it’ll work forever, right?
The point? If you’re on the left, adapt away. If you’re on the right, do nothing. Both will have the same impact on what’s coming. But at least go into it with your eyes open to reality.